As to how long the new virus was brewing before it took hold and manifested in the human pneumonia clusters - that too is unknown. Is there any connection between the earthquakes and the development of the COVID-19 virus? Who knows? But perhaps research on the subject might be a good idea. The earlier earthquake tremors were felt 900 miles away. What we do know is that the COVID-19 epidemic became apparent via a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan in late fall of 2019 and that six months previously, a Grade 5.8 caliber earthquake struck the Chinese province of Sichuan, the site of the worst earthquake in Chinese history in 2008. As for the time it takes for new mutants to occur and take root in the population – that, as yet, is unknown. When animals and humans live in close proximity, as they do in wet markets, the likelihood of species-jumping events during a period of natural havoc is magnified. One little-mentioned possibility is the consequences of natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and drought. This mechanism has been attributed to the creation of the COVID-19 virus. The mechanism for a plague virus’s development is generally attributed to genetic crossover or shifting from one species to another (species jumping) – the genetic “drift,” modifying genes. Most pandemics (Asian flu, Hong King flu, Swine flu, SARs-1) have known animal origins. While there are arguments for accidental or deliberate emergence, there is little doubt that COVID-19’s clinical expression began at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. “Of the three possibilities - natural, accidental, or deliberate - the most scientific evidence yet identified supports natural emergence.” It is impossible to categorically rule out the first two possible causes, and prudence dictates reducing potential exposure from all three. Natural causes: Natural zoonotic spillover, most likely at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.Professor Gostin’s assessment of possible epidemic sources as a launch point for future planning was particularly helpful. Two of his three suggestions are reminiscent of those I previously wrote for ACSH and Harvard’s Bill of Health, a forum for health law policy and bioethical perspectives. Last week in the New England Journal of Medicine, health law professor Lawrence Gostin outlined his proposals in an article entitled: The Origins of Covid-19 - Why It Matters (and Why It Doesn’t).
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